Predicting suitable areas for the invasive species Erthesina fullo (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

Erthesina fullo (Thunberg) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) is an invasive pest that has recently been detected in Europe (2017) and South America (2021). Due to polyphagia and temperature adaptation, this pest has a high risk of establishing in introduced areas. However, despite recent invasion events, there are no data on potentially suitable areas for E. fullo occurrence outside its native range. In this study, we presented a model for the potential distribution of E. fullo based on the CLIMEX algorithm. We built the model using global species occurrence (1424 points), three climate scenarios (current, 2030, and 2080), and available biological data. The ecoclimate index and weekly growth index were then estimated to determine the suitability of regions in a general scenario over time. Our model shows suitable areas for E. fullo in America, Africa, Europe, and Oceania under the current climate scenario. These regions have tropical and subtropical climates. However, the suitability was reduced (−28%) in those climates under future climate scenarios while increasing in temperate regions. In addition, we found that the weekly growth index of E. fullo was positively correlated with photoperiod. Our findings can help guide future efforts to prevent potential invasion and establishment of E. fullo beyond its current range.