Opportunities and challenges of the European Green Deal for the chemical industry: An approach measuring circularity

The European Green Deal aims to address the challenges of climate change and environmental degradation and plans to transform the EU into a modern, resource-efficient and competitive economy, ensuring, among other things, that there are no net emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050 and economic growth is decoupled from resource use. The European Commission has issued a Circular Economy Action Plan. The action plan announces initiatives along the entire life cycle of products. What opportunities and challenges can be expected from the implementation of the European Green Deal for the chemical industry in the EU? A circular economy offers innovative solutions to sustainability challenges by moving from a take-make-use-dispose economy to an improved resource management. However, the implementation of a closed loop economy for the chemical industry is not only reflected in the value chain within its own production processes but also in possible changes in customer demand due to circularity. Based on this observation, a methodology is developed to assess the impact of the circular economy on the customers of products provided by the chemical industry. The methodology developed is applied within a case study using the EU chemical industry as an example. The results of this case study show an increase in demand for chemicals compared to the baseline due to circular economy trends; for example, in the medium-term (2030), the circular economy drivers will lead to around 18 Bn. € of increased demand compared to today (2020). In the long-term (2045), the effects of circular economy will be softened to a certain extent and an increase in demand of around 6 Bn. € is expected. For example, demand for plastics as well as paints and inks in the automotive industry will increase in the medium-term. This is directly related to the growing demand for electro mobility, the trend towards lightweight materials and the increasing use of plastics (composite materials) in automotive construction. The methodology presented here provides a future perspective of the impact of circularity on the respective product demand of customers in the chemical industry and attempts to inspire discussions that support the transition to a sustainable circular economy.