Distal sociological determinants and their association with the spatial distribution of new diagnoses of HIV infection in small areas in Catalonia (Spain)

Abstract Background Spatial visualization of HIV surveillance data could improve the planning of programs to address the HIV epidemic. Methods Surveillance data from the national registry were presented in the form of descriptive and ring maps and used to study the spatial distribution of new HIV diagnoses in Catalonia (2012–2016) and associated risk factors at the small area level (ABS, acronym for “basic health area in Catalan). Incident cases were modeled using the following as predictors: type of municipality, prevalence of young men and migrant groups, MSM activity indicators, and other variables at the aggregated level. Results New HIV diagnoses are heterogeneously distributed across Catalonia. The predictors that proved to be significantly associated with a higher rate of new HIV diagnoses were ABS located in the city of Barcelona (IRR, 2.520; P < 0.001), a higher proportion of men aged 15–44 years (IRR, 1.193; P = 0.003), a higher proportion of MSM (IRR, 1.230; P = 0.030), a higher proportion of men from Western Europe (IRR, 1.281; P = 0.003), a higher proportion of men from Latin America (IRR, 1.260; P = 0.003), and a higher number of gay locations (IRR, 2.665; P < 0.001). No association was observed between the HIV diagnosis rate and economic deprivation. Conclusions Ring maps revealed substantial spatial associations for the rate of new HIV diagnoses. New HIV diagnoses are concentrated in ABS located in urban areas. Our results show that the socioeconomic deprivation index on which the Catalan government bases its budget allocation policies among the ABS may not be appropriate for all diseases.