Drivers of 2015–2021 trends in cold winter surface PM2.5 in the Harbin-Changchun megalopolis in China: Meteorology vs. anthropogenic emission

Harbin-Changchun megalopolis (HCM) is a typical representative of the cold urban agglomeration region in China. Although the average annual PM2.5 concentration has experienced an evolutionary process continuous deterioration to gradual improvement in the past decade, but severe haze episodes still occur during cold winter periods. WRF-CMAQ model and observed dataset of surface PM2.5 concentration were conducted in this study to identify the drivers of 2015–2021 trends in cold winter surface PM2.5 in the HCM by separating contributions from anthropogenic emissions and meteorology changes. Meteorological condition change was the dominant driver of 2015–2021 trends in cold winter surface PM2.5 in the HCM. The years with most unfavorable, typical, and most favorable meteorological conditions for PM2.5 concentration reduction during January from 2015 to 2021 for the whole HCM region were 2020, 2017, and 2018, respectively. The major controlling meteorological factors that affect the surface PM2.5 concentration change were relative humidity, maximum wind direction and speed in cold winter in the HCM. In addition, we found that the emission cut policy began to play a practical role in the air quality improvement in the HCM from year of 2018. The emission reduction during the 2017–2021 resulted in an approximately 19% (15.7 μg/m3) decrease of PM2.5 concentrations in January. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments demonstrated that residential emission cut was the key measures for future air quality improvement in cold winter in the HCM.