Risk assessment and recovery trajectories of a social-ecological system with a discrete-event model after a volcanic eruption

A risk assessment for disasters is usually composed of hazard, vulnerability and exposure variables, which are hardly studied and modeled simultaneously. In volcanology, it remains ambitious to anticipate risk trajectories of pre- and post-eruption regimes. The interdependencies and feedback loops of the system's components, between geological, ecological, social and economic ones, give rise to trade-offs and synergies that should be disentangled for supporting decision-makers and helping local communities to face the risks. We developed here an innovative discrete-event and possibilistic model based on a dynamical network representation to assess volcanological multi-risk and long term post-eruption impacts of such a multifactorial system. We illustrated our method with the region around Mount Meru (Northern Tanzania), a strato-volcano with various eruption styles, located in a growing economic and touristic region (>1 M.inh.).