Collaborative energy-water-carbon management based on energy substitution and multiple compound responses

Symbiotic consistency among several limited resources has become increasingly prominent. Dependence on fossil fuels, combined with energy consumption-induced water scarcity and excess carbon emissions, jeopardizes sustainable development. This study developed a provincial-scale energy substitution and response (ESR) model to (a) aggregate homogeneous regions and emphasize consistency of results; (b) formulate energy-substitution strategies based on ecological utility maximization; (c) explore responses from the threefold perspective of environmental improvement, economic utility, and system robustness; and (d) reveal the effects of the main factors and their interactions to support policymaking. An approach that combines the k-means algorithm, multiregional input-output analysis, ecological network analysis, and factorial analysis was applied to China to verify the models. It was found that the uneven transfer of interregional ecological flows across regions is not conducive to the health of metabolic mechanisms. Energy substitution can bring the multiple benefits of resource conservation, environmental improvement, profit growth, and sustainability enhancement. Regions I, IV, and V can take the lead in implementing substitutions while Regions II and III can adopt a joint substitution strategy to obtain compound effects. Natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas facilities should be built in more developed regions while clean energy subsidies should be supplemented in underdeveloped areas. This study's findings offer a new perspective for coordinating environmental, economic, and social development while avoiding high unemployment and regional population loss caused by energy system restructuring.