Coming full circle: The potential utility of real-world evidence to discern predictions from a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model.

Today real word data (RWD) are playing a greater role in informing health care decisions. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK) and observed exposure-risk relationship predicted an increased bleeding risk induced by rivaroxaban (RXB) in patients with mild to moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD) taking concomitant medications that are combined Pgp-CYP3A inhibitors. In this commentary, we explore the potential use of RWD to assess the clinical consequence of this complex drug-drug interaction predicted from PBPK. This is a retrospective, case control, pilot study using a RWD dataset of 896,728 patients with mild to moderate chronic kidney disease and rivaroxaban use that was refined based upon combined Pgp-CYP3A inhibitor exposure and report of drug-induced bleeding (DIB). The odds ratio of patients with mild to moderate chronic kidney disease taking rivaroxaban with or without concurrent Pgp-CYP3A inhibitor use having a DIB was calculated. The odds ratio for DIB was 2.04 (CI 1.82, 2.3; p < 0.001) suggesting an approximate doubling of bleeding risk which is consistent with the rivaroxaban exposure changes predicted by the published PBPK model and observed exposure-risk relationship. This exploratory analysis demonstrated the potential utility of RWD to assess model-based predictions as part of a drugs life cycle management.