Development and Validation of PET/CT-Based Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Lymph Node Status in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Purpose This study was conducted to predict the lymph node status and survival of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma before treatment by PET-CT-related parameters. Methods From January 2013 to July 2018, patients with pathologically diagnosed ESCC at our hospital were retrospectively enrolled. Completed esophagectomy and two- or three-field lymph node dissections were conducted. Those with neoadjuvant therapy were excluded. The first 65% of patients in each year were regarded as the training set and the last 35% as the test set. Nomogram was constructed by the “rms” package. Five-year, overall survival was analyzed based on the best cutoff value of risk score determined by the “survivalROC” package. Results Ultimately, 311 patients were included with 209 in the training set and 102 in the test set. The positive rate of the lymph node in the training set was 36.8% and that in the test set was 32.4%. The C-index of the training set was 0.763 and the test set was 0.766. The decision curve analysis showed that it was superior to the previous methods based on lymph node uptake or long/short axis diameter or axial ratio. Risk score > 0.20 was significantly associated with 5-year, overall survival ( p = 0.0015) in all patients. Conclusions The nomogram constructed from PET-CT parameters including primary tumor metabolic length and thickness can accurately predict the risk of lymph node metastasis in ESCC. The risk score calculated by our model accurately predicts the patient’s 5-year overall survival.