Circulating tumour HPV16 DNA quantification – A prognostic tool for progression-free survival in patients with HPV-related oropharyngeal carcinoma receiving curative chemoradiotherapy

Circulating tumour (ct) human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA is detectable in HPV-related oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPSCC) patients and has the potential to become an important clinical tool. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic significance of ctHPV16-DNA kinetics during treatment with chemoradiotherapy in HPV-related OPSCC. Patients with p16-positive OPSCC recruited to the ARTSCAN III trial, comparing radiotherapy plus cisplatin with radiotherapy plus cetuximab, constituted the study cohort.Blood samples before start and at the end of treatment of 136 patients were analysed. ctHPV16-DNA was quantified by real-time (q)PCR. The correlation between ctHPV16-DNA levels and tumour burden was investigated with Pearson regression analysis. The prognostic value of ctHPV16-DNA levels at baseline and decline during treatment was evaluated by area-under-the-curve (AUC) calculations and analysed with univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models.ctHPV16-DNA was detectable with qPCR in 108/136 patients before start of treatment and cleared in 74% of these patients at the end of treatment. Disease burden was significantly correlated with baseline ctHPV16-DNA levels (R = 0.39, p=<0.001). Both lower baseline levels and AUC-ctHPV16DNA were associated with improved progression-free survival (p = 0.01 and p < 0.001), overall survival (p = 0.013 and p = 0.002), but not local tumour control (p = 0.12 and p = 0.2, respectively), with a stronger association for AUC-ctHPV16DNA (likelihood ratio test 10.5 vs 6.5 in Cox regression analyses of progression-free survival). In multivariable analysis including tumour volume (GTV-T) and treatment allocation (cisplatin vs cetuximab), AUC-ctHPV16DNA remained a significant prognostic marker of progression-free survival.ctHPV16-DNA is an independent prognostic factor in HPV-related OPSCC.