Dynamic changes in three biomarkers predict early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy

Purpose Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remain at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma during antiviral therapy. We aimed to clarify the values of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lectin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3), and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) for early warning of HCC. Methods A total of 1348 CHB patients received antiviral therapy and follow-up every 26 weeks. Eighty-four patients with HCC were age-, sex-, and cirrhosis-matched with 168 controls. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were compared between the groups from 104 weeks before HCC diagnosis (− 104 w) to the time of diagnosis (0 w). Results Of the 84 HCC patients, 60 (71.4%) had early-stage HCC, AFP increased from − 26 w, and AFP-L3 and DCP increased from − 78 w. However, levels were unchanged in controls. ΔAFP, ΔAFP-L3, and ΔDCP showed similar abilities for predicting HCC (P > 0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that AFP had better diagnostic performance for HCC than AFP-L3, DCP, or their combination. The cut-off values of AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were 5.3 ng/mL, 1.05%, and 31.5 mAU/mL, respectively. Notably, lower AFP values were required to diagnose HCC in patients with detectable HBV DNA (4.1 ng/mL) or elevated alanine aminotransferase (5.2 ng/mL). Conclusions Changes in AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP can help to predict HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. A lower AFP value is needed to diagnose HCC, especially in patients with detectable HBV DNA or elevated alanine aminotransferase.