Prognostic value of PCT in septic emergency patients

Background An accurate assessment of septic patients at risk for poor clinical outcomes is challenging for clinicians in the emergency department (ED). Objectives We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of procalcitonin (PCT) in septic patients in the ED for predicting death. Results In a retrospective study, 188 septic patients (median age 63 [IQR 51–80]) of two French university hospitals were included. Patients who deceased within 30 days (20 %, n = 37) presented higher PCT value at admission (median 34.0 µg/L [5.0–71.9]) in comparison with the survivals (median 6.4 µg/L [4.1–13.1], p = 0.0005). ROC curve analysis indicated a moderate AUC of 0.686 [95 % CI 0.613–0.752] and an optimal PCT threshold value at 32.5 [95 % CI 21.8–43.3] µg/L that was associated with a 51 % [34–67] sensitivity, a 96 % [90–98] specificity, a 73 % [52–88] positive predictive value, and a 89 % [83–93] negative predictive value for death. Only 26 patients (14 %) had PCT values above this threshold (19 in the deceased group vs 7 in survival group, p < 0.0001). By multivariate analysis, only three variables remained significantly predictive of the death: personal history of cardiovascular disease (OR 3.1 [1.0–9.4], p = 0.046), the presence of severe sepsis/septic shock in the ER (OR 4.4 [1.3–12.3], p = 0.013), and a PCT level >32.5 µg/L (OR 36.0 [10.0–128.4], p < 0.0001). Similar results were obtained when considering the combined outcome death and/or admission in ICU. Conclusion Elevated value of PCT at admission has moderate accuracy to identify poor outcome in ED septic patients in daily practice.