Evaluating Urban Stream Flooding with Machine Learning, LiDAR, and 3D Modeling

Flooding in urban streams can occur suddenly and cause major environmental and infrastructure destruction. Due to the high amounts of impervious surfaces in urban watersheds, runoff from precipitation events can cause a rapid increase in stream water levels, leading to flooding. With increasing urbanization, it is critical to understand how urban stream channels will respond to precipitation events to prevent catastrophic flooding. This study uses the Prophet time series machine learning algorithm to forecast hourly changes in water level in an urban stream, Hunnicutt Creek, Clemson, South Carolina (SC), USA. Machine learning was highly accurate in predicting changes in water level for five locations along the stream with R-2 values greater than 0.9. Yet, it can be challenging to understand how these water level prediction values will translate to water volume in the stream channel. Therefore, this study collected terrestrial Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data for Hunnicutt Creek to model these areas in 3D to illustrate how the predicted changes in water levels correspond to changes in water levels in the stream channel. The predicted water levels were also used to calculate upstream flood volumes to provide further context for how small changes in the water level correspond to changes in the stream channel. Overall, the methodology determined that the areas of Hunnicutt Creek with more urban impacts experience larger rises in stream levels and greater volumes of upstream water during storm events. Together, this innovative methodology combining machine learning, terrestrial LiDAR, 3D modeling, and volume calculations provides new techniques to understand flood-prone areas in urban stream environments.