Meteorological Pre-warning Grade of High Temperature During Flowering Stage for Summer Maize in North China Plain

High temperatures during flowering stage affects the seed setting in maize and thereby result in significant yield penalties in recent changing climate era. Based on the daily maximum temperature data of the maize growing season from 1971 to 2019 at the surface meteorological observatory in Henan Province of China and maize observation data at the agricultural meteorological observatory, an early warning grade of high temperatures during the summer maize flowering stage was constructed. The daily maximum temperature of the summer maize flowering stage was ≥ 32 °C as the critical threshold of high temperature disaster, and ≥ 35 °C as the threshold of high temperature disaster. The number of high temperature days ( HD ) ≥ 32 °C and ≥ 35 °C during 10 days of the summer maize flowering stage were counted. The sequence of high temperature days of summer maize flowering stage was constructed and its normal distribution characteristics were verified. The quartile value of the normal distribution sequence was selected as the threshold value of high temperature in different grades, and the high temperature heat damage in the summer maize flowering stage was divided into three early warning meteorological grades. The index verification of the early warning meteorological grade was carried out by using the observation data of kernel number per ear in the agricultural meteorological station for maize. The results showed that the three grade indexes corresponding to the number of high temperature days with daily maximum temperature ≥ 32 °C were: 3 ≤ HD < 5 (Grade I), 5 ≤ HD < 7 (Grade II), and HD ≥ 7 (Grade III) and the three grade indexes corresponding to high temperature days ≥ 35 °C were: 2 ≤ HD < 3 (Grade I), 3 ≤ HD < 5 (Grade II), HD ≥ 5 (Grade III). The constructed indexes were verified as follows, the number of high temperature days ≥ 32 °C at about 90% stations was significantly negatively correlated with the number of maize grains per ear, and 74% stations which the number of high temperature days ≥ 35 °C was significantly negatively correlated with the number of maize grains per ear. Applying this index to evaluate the high temperature risk in the flowering period, we can indicate that the high temperature risk had trend of increasing gradually from north to south. In conclusion, the constructed high temperature warning meteorological grade index during the flowering stage could accurately reflect the damage grade of maize during the flowering stage.