Forecasting Rural and Urban Otolaryngologists, Radiation Oncologists, and Oropharyngeal Carcinoma

ObjectiveTo forecast oropharyngeal carcinoma (OPC) incidence with otolaryngologist and radiation oncologist numbers per population by rural and urban counties through 2030.MethodsIncident OPC cases were abstracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 19 database, and otolaryngologists and radiation oncologists from the Area Health Resources File by county from 2000 to 2018. Variables were analyzed by metropolitan counties with over 1,000,000 people (large metros), rural counties adjacent to a metro (rural adjacent), and rural counties not adjacent to a metro (rural not adjacent). Data were forecasted via an unobserved components model with regression slope comparisons.ResultsPer 100,000 population, forecasted OPC incidence increased from 2000 to 2030 (large metro: 3.6 to 10.6 cases; rural adjacent: 4.2 to 11.9; rural not adjacent: 4.3 to 10.1). Otolaryngologists remained stable for large metros (2.9 to 2.9) but declined in rural adjacent (0.7 to 0.2) and rural not adjacent (0.8 to 0.7). Radiation oncologists increased from 1.0 to 1.3 in large metros, while rural adjacent remained similar (0.2 to 0.2) and rural not adjacent increased (0.2 to 0.6). Compared to large metros, regression slope comparisons indicated similar forecasted OPC incidence for rural not adjacent (p = 0.58), but greater for rural adjacent (p < 0.001, r = 0.96). Otolaryngologists declined for rural regions (p < 0.001 and p < 0.001, r = -0.56, and r = -0.58 for rural adjacent and not adjacent, respectively). Radiation oncologists declined in rural adjacent (p < 0.001, r = -0.61), while increasing at a lesser rate for rural not adjacent (p = 0.002, r = 0.96).ConclusionsRural OPC incidence disparities will grow while the relevant, rural health care workforce declines.