Eliminating Vertical Transmission of HIV in South Africa: Establishing a Baseline for the Global Alliance to End AIDS in Children.

To gain a detailed overview of vertical transmission in South Africa, we describe insights from the triangulation of data sources used to monitor the national HIV program. HIV PCR results from the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) were analysed from the National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) data warehouse to describe HIV testing coverage and positivity among children <2 years old from 2017–2021. NICD data were compared and triangulated with the District Health Information System (DHIS) and the Thembisa 4.6 model. For 2021, Thembisa estimates a third of children living with HIV go undiagnosed, with NICD and DHIS data indicating low HIV testing coverage at 6 months (49%) and 18 months (33%) of age, respectively. As immunisation coverage is reported at 84% and 66% at these time points, better integration of HIV testing services within the Expanded Programme for Immunization is likely to yield improved case findings. Thembisa projects a gradual decrease in vertical transmission to 450 cases per 100,000 live births by 2030. Unless major advances and strengthening of maternal and child health services, including HIV prevention, diagnosis, and care, can be achieved, the goal to end AIDS in children by 2030 in South Africa is unlikely to be realised.