The prevalence of post COVID-19 condition (PCC) and a simple risk scoring tool for PCC screening on Bonaire, Caribbean Netherlands: a retrospective cohort study

Aim To assess the prevalence of post COVID-19 condition (PCC) on Bonaire and develop a practical risk scoring tool for PCC screening, using easily obtainable characteristics. Methods A retrospective cohort study of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases were randomly sampled from Bonaire’s case-registry and telephone interviewed between 15-November-2021 and 4-December-2021. PCC patients had a PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2 test (1-March-2020 and 1-October-2021) and self-attributed at least one symptom lasting over four weeks to their infection. Multivariate logistic regression was used to derive a risk formula to develop a practical risk scoring tool. Results Out of 414 cases, 160 (39%) were PCC patients. Fifty-three patients were unrecovered (median illness duration 250 days (IQR 34)). Of recovered patients, 35% experienced symptoms for at least 3 months after disease onset. PCC prevalence was highest among females (38%), 40-59 year-olds (40%), morbidly obese (31%) and hospitalized patients (80%). A PCC risk scoring tool using age, sex, presence of comorbidities, and acute phase hospitalization or GP visit had an area-under-the-curve (AUC) of 0.68 (95%CI 0.63-0.74). Adding smoking, alcohol use, BMI, education level, and number of acute phase symptoms increased the AUC to 0.79 (95%CI 0.74-0.83). Subgroup analyses of non-hospitalized patients (n=362) resulted in similar AUCs. Conclusion Thee estimated prevalence of PCC on Bonaire was 39%. Moreover, easily obtainable patient characteristics can be used to build a risk scoring tool for PCC with acceptable discriminatory power. After external validation, this tool could aid the development of healthcare interventions in low resource settings to identify patients at risk for PCC. What is already known on this topic: What this study adds: How this study might affect research, practice or policy: ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This work was funded by the RIVM department CIb their RAC programme budget: Research budget (grant number 0113/2021, August 5th 2021) ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The study protocol was sent to the Central Committee on Research Involving Human Subjects (CCMO Netherlands), who confirmed on 8 October 2021 that the study did not require ethical approval due to its observational design. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors