Belief reliability index determination method based on group decision-making

For newly developing systems, the determination of the reliability index is an important task in the system demonstration process that determines both the system design goal and the verification requirement. However, due to the insufficient data at the beginning of the system life cycle, the problem of epistemic uncertainty cannot be ignored. Researchers have proposed several belief reliability metrics and analysis methods to quantify the epistemic uncertainty of a system, but to the best knowledge of the authors, no relevant studies have been performed on system reliability index determination. In this paper, we propose a belief reliability index determination method based on group decision-making. Using a similar system-based reliability index determination method, this method comprehensively considers the demands of users and the capabilities of contractors. In addition, the Delphi method and Hadamard multiplication convex combination are combined to effectively solve the epistemic uncertainty quantification problem. The Delphi method is used to find the conflicts caused by multi-expert scoring, and the Hadamard multiplication convex combination can integrate the scoring matrix of all experts, which makes the results more reasonable. Finally, a Low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite communication system is used to verify the effectiveness of our belief reliability index determination method.