Predicting crop injury caused by flea beetles in spring oilseed rape through pest monitoring in the autumn

1. Reliably predicting pest damage would allow farmers to reduce insecticide use without incurring economic losses and thus contribute to agricultural sustainability. However, means to predict pest severity are lacking.2. We assessed whether crop feeding injury caused by flea beetles in spring oilseed rape can be predicted from flea beetle pest densities in the previous season using 22 years of suction trap catches of flea beetles in combination with crop feeding injury data from 293 fields.3. We found a strong positive relationship between the densities of flea beetles of the genus Phyllotreta in the summer and autumn activity period of the previous year and crop feeding injury caused by flea beetles in spring oilseed rape the following year. Autumn weather or the total cover of spring oilseed rape in the study region did not improve the prediction further.4. Pest monitoring using suction traps is thus a promising tool to predict crop feeding injury and can reduce insecticide use in years with low pest pressures.