Modeling Tree Species Richness Patterns and Their Environmental Drivers Across Hyrcanian Mountain Forests

Perception of the way tree species richness distribution varies along the elevational gradient is necessary for applying conservation strategies in favor of biodiversity hotspots. Hyrcanian Mountain Forests of Iran are among the most biodiverse forests in the world and are inscribed in the United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) World Heritage List. Here, the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) and Stack-Species Distribution Model (S-SDMs) were used to understand tree diversity patterns of the Hyrcanian Mountain Forests. For all the tree species, we implemented the BART model with nine environmental variables, including six bioclimatic and three topographic variables, to create a habitat suitability map. We used the area under the curve (AUC), True skill statistic (TSS), type I error, and type II error to evaluate the BART model for each tree species. All models were then stacked to estimate tree species richness. Important variables affecting the distribution of tree species in northern Iran were different for each species but, in general, topographic variables such as slope and altitude played a very important role. BART model mapped all the 29 tree species distribution effectively with AUC 0.83-0.98, TSS 0.51-0.92; and low type I and type II errors. A very important point was the high ability of this model to predict species with low presence data. The achievement of this study was identifying the biodiversity hotspots based on the tree distribution pattern along the elevational gradient. We mapped regional richness at 1 km spatial resolution and it was the first effort to predict macroecological patterns in the Hyrcanian forests of Iran. The hotspots were mainly scattered from sea level and areas with 1000 m elevation, which were close to residential areas. In conclusion, these results help forest manager to plan new conservation strategies based on tree richness hotspots.