System Evolution Model of Human Disturbances in Panda Habitats

Anthropogenic associated habitat fragmentation has had a profound impact on great panda populations and their geographical distribution. Quantifying how panda disturbances manifest temporally and to what extent spatially can be challenging to model given the complexity of data structures and predictor variables involved. To inform future panda protection efforts and research in conservation ecology, we adopted a new approach to modeling the spatial patterns of simultaneously occurring panda disturbances over time using a system evolution model. Based on the 3rd (1999-2003) and 4th (2011-2014) National Wild Giant Panda field surveys, we analyzed the development and spatial trends of local and regional habitat disturbances affecting panda populations in China. Between 1999 and 2014, human disturbances in Minshan and Xiaoxiangling decreased by 16.15% and 36.62%, respectively, while increasing trends of 7.59%, 0.89%, and 34.49% were observed in Qionglaishan, Daxiangling, and Liangshan respectively. Ecological protection measures have also increased in Minshan, Xiaoxiangling, and Liangshan by 4.10%, 19.01%, and 4.56%, respectively, whilst a reverse trend was identified in Qionglaishan (-3.52%) and Daxiangling (-8.09%). The regional imbalance of human disturbances in Minshan, Xiaoxiangling, and Liangshan increased by 46.36%, 33.59%, and 18.82%, respectively, whilst decreasing in Qionglaishan (-4.81%) and Daxiangling (-36.39). Our findings demonstrate the utility of information entropy theory in examining cross-sectional data of multiple disturbances affecting wildlife populations. Application of this method in the context of panda habitat fragmentation has helped identify unique temporal and spatial characteristics of human disturbances impacting panda habitats over time.