Milk yield residuals and their link with the metabolic status of dairy cows in the transition period

The transition period is one of the most challenging periods in the lactation cycle of high-yielding dairy cows. It is commonly known to be associated with diminished animal welfare and economic performance of dairy farms. The development of data-driven health monitoring tools based on on -farm available milk yield development has shown potential in identifying healthperturbing events. As proof of principle, we explored the association of these milk yield residuals with the metabolic status of cows during the transition period. Over 2 yr, 117 transition periods from 99 multiparous Holstein-Friesian cows were monitored intensively. Pre- and postpartum dry matter intake was measured and blood samples were taken at regular intervals to determine beta-hydroxybutyrate, nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), insulin, glucose, fructosamine, and IGF1 concentrations. The expected milk yield in the current transition period was predicted with 2 previously developed models (nextMILK and SLMYP) using lowfrequency test-day (TD) data and high-frequency milk meter (MM) data from the animal's previous lactation, respectively. The expected milk yield was subtracted from the actual production to calculate the milk yield residuals in the transition period (MRT) for both TD and MM data, yielding MRTTD and MRTMM. When the MRT is negative, the realized milk yield is lower than the predicted milk yield, in contrast, when positive, the realized milk yield exceeded the predicted milk yield. First, blood plasma analytes, dry matter intake, and MRT were compared between clinically diseased and nonclinically diseased transitions. MRTTD and MRTMM, postpartum dry matter intake and IGF1 were significantly lower for clinically diseased versus nonclinically diseased transitions, whereas beta-hydroxybutyrate and NEFA concentrations were significantly higher. Next, linear models were used to link the MRTTD and MRTMM of the nonclinically diseased cows with the dry matter intake measurements and blood plasma analytes. After variable selection, a final model was constructed for MRTTD and MRTMM, resulting in an adjusted R2 of 0.47 and 0.73, respectively. While both final models were not identical the retained variables were similar and yielded comparable importance and direction. In summary, the most informative variables in these linear models were the dry matter intake postpartum and the lactation number. Moreover, in both models, lower and thus also more negative MRT were linked with lower dry matter intake and increasing lactation number. In the case of an increasing dry matter intake, MRTTD was positively associated with NEFA concentrations. Furthermore, IGF1, glucose, and insulin explained a significant part of the MRT. Results of the present study suggest that milk yield residuals at the start of a new lactation are indicative of the health and metabolic status of transitioning dairy cows in support of the development of a health monitoring tool. Future field studies including a higher number of cows from multiple herds are needed to validate these findings.