Development and temporal validation of clinical prediction models for 1-year disability and pain after lumbar decompressive surgery. The Norwich Lumbar Surgery Predictor (development version)

Purpose To identify clinical predictors and build prediction models for 1-year patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) after lumbar decompressive surgery for disc herniation or spinal stenosis. Methods The study included 1835 cases, with or without additional single-level fusion, from a single centre from 2008 through 2020. General linear models imputed with 37 clinical variables identified 18 significant 1-year PROM predictors for retention in development models. Interaction of surgical indication with each predictor was tested. Temporal validation was conducted at the same centre on cases through 2021. R 2 was used to measure goodness-of-fit, and area under curve (AUC) used to measure classification to a satisfactory symptom state (Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) ≤ 22; back or leg pain ≤ 30 out of 100). Results A total 1228 (67%) had complete data for inclusion in model development. Predictors of ODI were baseline PROMs (ODI, back pain, leg pain), work status, condition duration, previous lumbar operation, multiple-joint osteoarthritis, female, diabetes, current smoker, rheumatic disorder, lower limb arthroplasty, mobility aided, provider status, facet cyst, scoliosis, and age, with BMI significantly associated with stenosis. Temporal validation ( n = 188) found the ODI model R 2 was 0.29 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.18–0.40) and AUC was 0.74 (95% CI 0.67–0.81). Back and leg pain models had lower R 2 (0.12–0.14) and AUC (0.68–0.69) values. Conclusion Important PROM predictors are baseline PROMs, specific co-morbidities, work status, condition duration, previous lumbar operation, female, and smoking status. The ODI model predicted the likelihood of achieving a satisfactory state of both disability and pain.