Assessing Shoreline Changes in Fringing Salt Marshes from Satellite Remote Sensing Data.

Salt marshes are highly important wetlands; however, external pressures are causing their widespread deterioration and loss. Continuous monitoring of their extent is paramount for the preservation and recovery of deteriorated and threatened salt marshes. In general, moderate-resolution satellite remote sensing data allow for the accurate detection of salt marsh shorelines; however, their detection in narrow and fringing salt marshes remains challenging. This study aims to evaluate the ability of Landsat-5 (TM), Landsat-7 (ETM+), and Sentinel-2 (MSI) data to be used to accurately determine the shoreline of narrow and fringing salt marshes, focusing on three regions of the Aveiro lagoon in Mira, Ílhavo and S. Jacinto channels. Shorelines were determined considering the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the accuracy of this methodology was evaluated against reference shorelines by computing the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Once validated, the method was used to determine historical salt marsh shorelines, and rates of change between 1984 and 2022 were quantified and analyzed in the three locations. Results evidence that the 30 m resolution Landsat data accurately describe the salt marsh shoreline (RMSE~15 m) and that the accuracy is maintained when increasing the spatial resolution through pan-sharpening or when using 10 m resolution Sentinel-2 (MSI) data. These also show that the salt marshes of the Ílhavo and S. Jacinto channels evolved similarly, with salt marsh shoreline stability before 2000 followed by retreats after this year. At the end of the four decades of study, an average retreat of 66.23 ± 1.03 m and 46.62 ± 0.83 m was found, respectively. In contrast to these salt marshes and to the expected evolution, the salt marsh of the Mira Channel showed retreats before 2000, followed by similar progressions after this year, resulting in an average 2.33 ± 1.18 m advance until 2022.