Three-dimensional telomere profiling to predict risk of progression in smoldering multiple myeloma

8056 Background: Multiple myeloma (MM) is preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). A transitional stage of smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) can be identified between MGUS and MM. While MGUS carries a steady risk of progression of 1% per year, SMM is more heterogenous with nearly 40% of patients progressing in the first 5 years, 15% in the next 5 years, reaching the same low risk as MGUS after 10 years. SMM with its high risk of progression in the initial years after diagnosis presents a viable opportunity for early intervention. For implementing early intervention, the ability to identify SMM patients at the highest risk of progression is critical. This has led to the development of several risk stratification systems. Using these systems high risk SMM patients studied in phase 3 trials demonstrated delayed progression to MM and improved overall survival with early initiation of therapy. However, these approaches showed limited specificity exposing patients at lower risk of progression to therapy. To date, identifying high risk SMM patients and confirming disease stability in low risk SMM patients remain an important clinical need. Genomic instability has been shown to be a sensitive indicator of disease progression in cancer. Telomere dysfunction is an early event in genomic instability. The 3-dimensional spatial profiling of telomeres using TeloView technology allows for quantification of telomere dysfunction, and was shown to be instrumental in risk stratification of cancer patients generally, but particularly in selected hematological malignancies. Importantly, in a previous SMM proof-of-concept study telomeric parameters measured by TeloView technology was found to be significantly different between SMM patients who progressed to active MM within 2 years and those who remained stable for over 5 years. Methods: We analyzed a total of 162 SMM patients using TeloView technology. 88 patients were employed as training dataset in Receiver Operating Curve (ROC) modeling to develop a scoring model that stratifies individual SMM patients based on risk of progression to full stage MM. An additional cohort of 74 SMM patients was used for blind validation of the developed scoring model. Results: We report area-under-the-curve (AUC) in the ROC analysis of 0.8 (accuracy 80%) achieved by the scoring model developed using the training dataset. Furthermore, the independent blind validation achieved positive predictive value of 83% and negative predictive value of 71%, with sensitivity and specificity of 80% and 76% respectively. Conclusions: The result of this study supports presenting TeloView as an accurate prognostic biomarker which appears able to stratify SMM patients into their respective risk groups with high sensitivity and specificity. This will potentially allow for evidence-based treatment decisions for high risk SMM patients and confident monitoring of stable patients.