Predicting prey diversity with multiple predator effects

Emergent multiple predator effects can result in either risk enhancement or reduction for prey populations. However, whether emergent multiple predator effects influence survival of entire prey assemblages is unknown, which could alter community diversity. We tested whether emergent multiple predator effects would lead to changes in survival of multiple prey species that would subsequently alter prey diversity. We experimentally tested whether larval ringed (Ambystoma annulatum) and marbled salamanders (A. opacum) had additive or multiplicative effects on hatchlings of an assemblage of five amphibian prey species using outdoor mesocosms. We also examined this question using data from a previously published experiment. We extended the multiplicative risk model to estimate prey diversity based on individual prey survival probabilities from each mesocosm. We found that predators generally had additive effects on all prey species, as the expected survival of prey was not different from the observed data, indicating a lack of emergent multiple predator effects. Consistent with this result, observed diversity was not different from expected diversity based on our extension of the multiplicative risk model, further indicating predator species had additive effects. Re-analysis of previously published data showed that when emergent multiple predator effects resulted in risk reduction, diversity changed in a manner consistent that outcome. Overall, we found that additive and multiplicative effects of multiple predators contributed to structuring entire prey communities, including influencing community metrics like diversity. Future work should consider further under what conditions diversity enhancement or reduction would occur.