The levels and trends of metabolic risk factors in the elderly population at the national and sub-national scale in Iran from 1990 to 2016

Purpose Describing the trends of metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in the elderly population. Methods We used modeled data from previous comprehensive systematic reviews for MRFs among adults aged ≥ 60 years. Two stages of age-specific Spatio-temporal modeling and Gaussian process regression were used to estimate the mean of MRFs. We used crosswalk modeling to estimate the prevalence of elevated and raised Total cholesterol (TC), overweight/obesity and obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Estimates were analyzed based on combinations of sex, age, year, and province from 1990 to 2016. Results Comparing prevalence estimates from 2016 with those of 1990, in the elderly population, the age-standardized prevalence of overweight/obesity, obesity, diabetes, and hypertension increased, conversely, the prevalence of hypercholesteremia decreased. The prevalence of hypertension increased about 141.5% and 129.9% in men and women respectively. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes increased about 109.5% in females, and 116.0% in males. Prevalence of elevated TC at the national level decreased to 67.4% (64.1–70.4) in women and to 51.1% (47.5–54.8) in men. These findings were almost shown across provinces. In general, the northern and western provinces had the highest prevalence of overweight/obesity in women in 2016. Conclusion The rising prevalence of most MRFs, as well as the greater prevalence and mean of all MRFs in women, necessitate effective public health policies to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases and run preventive programs.