Serengeti-Masai Mara ecosystem dynamics inferred from rainfall extremes

The Serengeti-Masai Mara Ecosystem (SMME) is an iconic ecological and biodiversity resource in East Africa with a spectacular great animal migration feature. Environmental shocks like droughts, floods, and land degradation threaten the SMME's ecological functioning. However, the spatiotemporal ecosystem dynamics during climate extremes are inadequately examined. Here we quantified water availability and vegetation changes during extreme wet (EWE) and dry (EDE) events over the SMME for wet and dry seasons in 1982-2020. We derived extreme events from seasonal mean precipitation anomaly exceeding standard deviation and applied composite and correlation techniques to assess their dynamics with animal populations and migration prospects. Wet season EWE increases vegetative and moist conditions over southern SMME, suggesting elongating migrants' occupancy compared to normal periods and delayed northward migration. Wet season EDE significantly suppresses these features, heightening ecosystem competition and survival threats, proposing an earlier northward migration. Dry season EWE increases vegetation and water availability over northern SMME, prompting the late southward migration. Dry season EDE significantly reduces vegetation and water availability over northern SMME, suggesting an early southward migration towards regions with more vegetation and increased water availability. The SMME also experiences multiple EDE occurring in consecutive seasons, prolonging dry conditions that aggregate wildlife survival threats. Notably, two EDE prevailed consecutively from the 1993 dry season to the 1994 wet season, coupled with a population decline of wildebeest (1.2-0.9 million), buffalo (40-20 thousand), and lion (1.3-0.9 thousand). We also note a reversal from more EDE to EWE during the study period. Prevalent EWE can lessen wet and vegetative conditions distribution gradient, which is imperative for the functioning of the SMME migratory ecosystem. Our study unveiled hotspot areas of extremes-driven ecosystem changes for the sustainable SMME migratory functioning essential for framing meaningful conservation management policies under climate change.