Optimizing the Dutch newborn screening for congenital hypothyroidism by incorporating amino acids and acylcarnitines in a machine learning-based model

Objective: Congenital hypothyroidism (CH) is an inborn thyroid hormone (TH) deficiency mostly caused by thyroidal (primary CH) or hypothalamic/pituitary (central CH) disturbances. Most CH newborn screening (NBS) programs are thyroid-stimulating-hormone (TSH) based, thereby only detecting primary CH. The Dutch NBS is based on measuring total thyroxine (T4) from dried blood spots, aiming to detect primary and central CH at the cost of more false-positive referrals (FPRs) (positive predictive value (PPV) of 21% in 2007-2017). An artificial PPV of 26% was yielded when using a machine learning-based model on the adjusted dataset described based on the Dutch CH NBS. Recently, amino acids (AAs) and acylcarnitines (ACs) have been shown to be associated with TH concentration. We therefore aimed to investigate whether AAs and ACs measured during NBS can contribute to better performance of the CH screening in the Netherlands by using a revised machine learning-based model. Methods: Dutch NBS data between 2007 and 2017 (CH screening results, AAs and ACs) from 1079 FPRs, 515 newborns with primary (431) and central CH (84) and data from 1842 healthy controls were used. A random forest model including these data was developed. Results The random forest model with an artificial sensitivity of 100% yielded a PPV of 48% and AUROC of 0.99. Besides T4 and TSH, tyrosine, and succinylacetone were the main parameters contributing to the model's performance. Conclusions: The PPV improved significantly (26-48%) by adding several AAs and ACs to our machine learning-based model, suggesting that adding these parameters benefits the current algorithm.