Intelligent prognosis evaluation system for stage I-III resected non-small-cell lung cancer patients on CT images: a multi-center study

Background Prognosis is crucial for personalized treatment and surveillance suggestion of the resected non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients in stage I-III. Although the tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging system is a powerful predictor, it is not perfect enough to accurately distinguish all the patients, especially within the same TNM stage. In this study, we developed an intelligent prognosis evaluation system (IPES) using pre-therapy CT images to assist the traditional TNM staging system for more accurate prognosis prediction of resected NSCLC patients.Methods 20,333 CT images of 6371 patients from June 12, 2009 to March 24, 2022 in West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Mianzhu People's Hospital, Peking University People's Hospital, Chengdu Shangjin Nanfu Hospital and Guangan Peoples' Hospital were included in this retrospective study. We developed the IPES based on self supervised pre-training and multi-task learning, which aimed to predict an overall survival (OS) risk for each patient. We further evaluated the prognostic accuracy of the IPES and its ability to stratify NSCLC patients with the same TNM stage and with the same EGFR genotype.Findings The IPES was able to predict OS risk for stage I-III resected NSCLC patients in the training set (C-index 0.806; 95% CI: 0.744-0.846), internal validation set (0.783; 95% CI: 0.744-0.825) and external validation set (0.817; 95% CI: 0.786-0.849). In addition, IPES performed well in early-stage (stage I) and EGFR genotype prediction. Furthermore, by adopting IPES-based survival score (IPES-score), resected NSCLC patients in the same stage or with the same EGFR genotype could be divided into low-and high-risk subgroups with good and poor prognosis, respectively (p < 0.05 for all).Interpretation The IPES provided a non-invasive way to obtain prognosis-related information from patients. The identification of IPES for resected NSCLC patients with low and high prognostic risk in the same TNM stage or with the same EGFR genotype suggests that IPES have potential to offer more personalized treatment and surveillance suggestion for NSCLC patients.