Identifying the impact of the business cycle on drug-related harms in European countries

Background: The evidence resulting from the analysis of the association between economic fluctuations and their impact on the substance use is mixed and inconclusive. Effects can be pro-cyclical (drug-related harms are predicted to rise when economic conditions improve), counter-cyclical (drug-related harms are predicted to rise in bad economic times) or unrelated to business cycle conditions as different transmission mechanisms could operate simultaneously. Methods: The main aim of this study is to assess, from a macroeconomic perspective, the impact of economic cycles on illegal drug-related harms in European countries over the 2000-2020 period. To this end, the regime -dependent relationship between drug-related harm, proxied by unemployment, and the business cycle, proxied by overdose deaths will be identified. Applying a time dynamic linear analysis, within the framework of threshold panel data models, structural-breaks will also be tested.Results: The relationship between economic cycles (proxied by unemployment) and drug-related harms (proxied by overdose deaths) is negative, and therefore found to be pro-cyclical. One percentage point in the country unemployment rate is predicted to reduce the overdose death rate by a statistically significant percentage of 2.42. A counter-cyclical component was identified during the 2008 economic recession. The threshold model captures two effects: when unemployment rates are lower than the estimated thresholds, ranging from 3.92% to 4.12%, drug-related harms and unemployment have a pro-cyclical relationship. However, when unemployment rates are higher than this threshold, this relationship becomes counter-cyclical.Conclusions: The relationship between economic cycles and drug-related harms is pro-cyclical. However, in situations of economic downturns, a counter-cyclical effect is detected, as identified during the 2008 economic recession.