Nurse migration: Long-run determinants and dynamics of flows in response to health and economic shocks

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the global shortage of nurses and doctors, highlighting the need for countries to aim for greater self-sufficiency in their health workforce rather than relying on foreign recruitment to meet excess demand. By using gravity models and taking advantage of rich data over the period 2001-2021, we examine the determinants of qualified nurse migration to OECD countries and investigate how macroeconomic imbalances impact nursing labour markets across time and place. We find evidence that economic recession in origin countries can lead to an increased loss of medical personnel, which could worsen the nurse deficit there. Source countries are particularly vulnerable to a nurse deficit if a recession is followed by a health shock that increases the demand for healthcare. However, a health shock temporarily reduces the number of nurses leaving and hence decreases the number of incoming nurses in destination countries. Recessions in destination countries reduce the number of arriving nurses there. Our study also captures the role of place in nurse migration by investigating heterogeneity in nurse migration across the main geographic source regions worldwide.