Construction and validation of a risk assessment model for acute kidney injury in patients with acute pancreatitis in the intensive care unit

Background To construct and validate a risk assessment model for acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) in the intensive care unit (ICU). Methods A total of 963 patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis (AP) from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database was included. These patients were randomly divided into training set (N = 674) and validation set (N = 289) at a ratio of 7:3. Clinical characteristics were utilized to establish a nomogram for the prediction of AKI during ICU stay. These variables were selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operation (LASSO) regression and included in multivariate logistic regression analysis. Variables with P-values less than 0.05 were included in the final model. A nomogram was constructed based on the final model. The predicted accuracy of the nomogram was assessed by calculating the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and the area under the curve (AUC). Moreover, calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test (HL test) were performed to evaluate model performance. Decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated the clinical net benefit of the model. Results A multivariable model that included 6 variables: weight, SOFA score, white blood cell count, albumin, chronic heart failure, and sepsis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.82, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of the training set and validation set were 0.82 (95% confidence interval:0.79–0.86) and 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.70–0.82), respectively. Calibration plots showed good consistency between predicted and observed outcomes in both the training and validation sets. DCA confirmed the clinical value of the model and its good impact on actual decision-making. Conclusion We identified risk factors associated with the development of AKI in patients with AP. A risk prediction model for AKI in ICU patients with AP was constructed, and improving the treatment strategy of relevant factors in the model can reduce the risk of AKI in AP patients.