Revealing the spatio-temporal characteristics and impact mechanism of carbon emission in China's urban agglomerations

Addressing carbon emissions is central to tackling climate change and achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this context, urban agglomerations emerge as crucial players. Our study delves into the carbon emission trends and their driving mechanisms across 19 Chinese urban agglomerations from 2000 to 2018 by spatial statistical analysis and GeoDetector. We found that while total carbon emissions have been on the rise, the rate of increase has decelerated. A regional disparity is evident in the carbon emissions of these 19 urban agglomerations, characterized by higher emissions in the east and lower in the west. Notably, carbon emissions demonstrate considerable concentration in urban agglomerations with higher levels of development and their major cities. Regarding the factors affecting carbon emissions growth, economic scale (E) stands out as the most dominant, whereas carbon intensity (CI) and industrial structure (I) have a more subdued impact. These factors, when interacting, have a compounded effect compared to their individual influences. We advocate for a stratified carbon reduction approach centered on urban agglomerations, complemented by a bespoke strategy for core cities. Furthermore, carbon reduction efforts in urban agglomerations should carefully consider the interactive influence of multiple factors.