Comprehensive evaluation of the effectiveness of endemic disease prevention and control in Jiangsu Province, China, 2013-2022

As a strong economic and populous province in China, Jiangsu is home to four endemic diseases. Despite efforts in the past decade, the prevention and control of these four endemic diseases are not uniform because of the different etiological chains and influencing factors of these diseases. Among the evaluation methodologies for endemic disease control, only one method is currently available for each disease. In this study, we selected 14 indicators to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of endemic disease control in Jiangsu between 2013 and 2022. We improved the method for calculating the weights of the indicators and established a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on the weighted Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution model and a weighted grey relational analysis model. The results of the comprehensive evaluation showed that the progress of endemic disease control in Jiangsu was not always in line with our expectations of improvement, with the top five years of better control occurring in 2015, 2013, 2021, 2022, and 2014. The results of the sensitivity analysis confirm the reliability and accuracy of these findings. We discovered that measures such as the reform of the salt industry, use of thyroid ultrasound, and new water supply projects for residents in Jiangsu affected the progress of endemic disease prevention and control. The tracking of endemic disease status should consider the potential effects of changes in policies implemented in other industries on endemic disease prevention and control. Additionally, the results of this study provide a theoretical basis for enhancing prevention and control practices in other regions of China.