Prediction of incidence of neurological disorders in HIV-infected persons in Taiwan: a nested case–control study

Background Neurological disorders are still prevalent in HIV-infected people. We aimed to determine the prevalence of neurological disorders and identify their risk factors in HIV-infected persons in Taiwan. Methods We identified 30,101 HIV-infected people between 2002 and 2016 from the National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan, and analyzed the incidence of neurological disorders. We applied a retrospective, nested case–control study design. The individuals with (case group) and without (control group) a neurological disorder were then matched by age, sex and time. Factors associated with neurological disorders were analyzed using a conditional logistic regression model, and a nomogram was generated to estimate the risk of developing a neurological disorder. Results The incidence of neurological disorders was 13.67 per 1000 person-years. The incidence remained stable during the observation period despite the use of early treatment and more tolerable modern anti-retroviral therapy. The conditional logistic regression model identified nine clinical factors and comorbidities that were associated with neurological disorders, namely age, substance use, traumatic brain injury, psychiatric illness, HIV-associated opportunistic infections, frequency of emergency department visits, cART adherence, urbanization, and monthly income. These factors were used to establish the nomogram. Conclusion Neurological disorders are still prevalent in HIV-infected people in Taiwan. To efficiently identify those at risk, we established a nomogram with nine risk factors. This nomogram could prompt clinicians to initiate further evaluations and management of neurological disorders in this population.