Making decisions with evidential probability and objective Bayesian calibration inductive logics

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING(2023)

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摘要
Calibration inductive logics are based on accepting estimates of relative frequencies, which are used to generate imprecise probabilities. In turn, these imprecise probabilities are intended to guide beliefs and decisions — a process called “calibration”. Two prominent examples are Henry E. Kyburg's system of Evidential Probability and Jon Williamson's version of Objective Bayesianism. There are many unexplored questions about these logics. How well do they perform in the short-run? Under what circumstances do they do better or worse? What is their performance relative to traditional Bayesianism?
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关键词
Agent-based modelling,Decision under uncertainty,Frequentist statistics,Imprecise probability,Machine learning,Objective Bayesianism
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