Supply and demand of hepatopancreatobiliary surgeons in the United States

Background: Hepatopancreatobiliary (HPB) surgery requires specialized training and adequate case volumes to maintain procedural proficiency and optimal outcomes. Studies of individual HPB surgeon supply related to annual HPB case demand are sparse. This study assesses the supply and demand of Methods: The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was queried from 1998-2019 to estimate the number of HPB procedures performed. To approximate the number of HPB surgeons, models based on previous HPB workforce publications were employed. We then calculated the number of HPB surgeons needed to maintain volume-outcome thresholds at current reported levels of centralization. Results: In 2019, approximately 37,335 patients underwent inpatient HPB procedures in the US, while an estimated 905-1191 HPB surgeons were practicing. Assuming 50% centralization and an optimal volume-outcome threshold of 24 HPB cases-per-year, only 778 HPB surgeons were needed. Without adjustment in centralization, by 2030 there will be a demand of fewer than 12 annual cases per HPB surgeon. Conclusion: The current supply of HPB surgeons may exceed demand in the United States. Without alteration in training pathways or improved care centralization, by 2030, there will be insufficient HPB case volume per surgeon to maintain published volume-outcome standards.