Implication of Applying IPCC AR4 and AR5 Framework for Drought-based Vulnerability and Risk Assessment in Bankura and Purulia Districts, West Bengal

Abstract In the districts of Purulia and Bankura, this study offers a methodology for spatial assessment of vulnerable and risk-prone areas. These districts are adjacent in space and have identical geographic characteristics (other than the eastern portion of Bankura district). Vulnerability and risk assessment could be used to measure the interactions between individuals and their surroundings. This research aims to pinpoint the areas in these two districts that are particularly susceptible to natural, social, and meteorological disasters. The natural and climate-induced factors considered are rainfall distribution and vegetation conditions. The social factors are agricultural dependence, percentage of farmers, female population, labor dependence on agriculture, and literacy rate. The potential impacts of developmental and environmental degradation processes can be examined and assessed by classifying regions according to their vulnerability and risk levels. The fundamental factors impacting susceptibility and risk, which are recognized, and the associated thematic-based outputs are produced in this study based on the persistent phenomenon of drought within these two districts. The elements of vulnerability selected for this study are exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (IPCC AR4) and risk, which is the combined outcome of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (IPCC AR5). The aim of this research is to create a simplified, scalable assessment model for evaluating both vulnerabilities and threats, which can help with drought mitigation. It has been observed from the results that the western portion of the study area (Arsha, Purulia-I, Baghmundi blocks of Purulia district) with relatively higher risk and vulnerability needs more attention for reducing the vulnerability and risk than the eastern part. As a result, this research can serve as a platform for district-level prioritizing efforts, emergency response protocols, and policy interventions aimed at reducing disaster susceptibility (mostly drought) in Bankura and Purulia districts.