Modelling future wetland loss with land use landcover change simulation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area: The importance of continued greenbelt development restrictions

The Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) is both the largest urban region in Canada and an area that contains most of the Greenbelt, a protected, ecologically significant area. This study uses land use landcover (LULC) change simulation and wetland data to model how increasing urban and suburban expansion may influence wetland loss and fragmentation in the GTHA if Greenbelt restrictions are not upheld. The results of the model simulation show that; (1) built-up area expansion shifts from the perimeters of major cities to the perimeters of smaller urban communities in the coming decades; (2) built-up areas are the LULC classification associated with substantially more wetland loss than the other LULC classifications included in this study (agriculture, forest, or open range land); (3) rural areas in the northern GTHA experience more wetland raster cell transition and urban areas experience fragmentation, but less overall raster cell transition; (4) there is more wetland area in Greenbelt areas compared to non-Greenbelt areas and without the continued enforcement of development restrictions, the percentage of wetland raster cell transition in Greenbelt areas would be equal to non-Greenbelt areas. This study illustrates the ecological significance of the policy frameworks that uphold the Greenbelt development restrictions and highlights how untethered urban and suburban expansion could impact wetlands throughout this environmentally sensitive region.