Blue Transition for Sustainable Marine Fisheries: Critical Drivers and Evidence from China

Achieving blue transition-sustainable fishery development has become one of the most important concerns for China's blue economy. Blue transition is defined as the transition from fish biomass reduction to biomass recovery of exploited fishery resources through the development of alternative seafood production from aquaculture. Our study examines the "blue transition" between marine fisheries captures and aquaculture production in China and probes the future development trends of China's fisheries under socioeconomic drivers. The results indicate that the resource displacement of the blue transition is not currently underway in China. It predicts a future decline in China's fish production after around 2030, while marine aquaculture products will remain a major component of fish production in the future. Our study adopts an integrated methodology to assess the critical timing of China's blue transition for the first time, and predicts future trends in marine capture fisheries transitions, which can provide recommendations for sustainable transition pathways to achieve SDG14.