Patterns and Drivers of Carbon Stock Change in Ecological Restoration Regions: A Case Study of Upper Yangtze River Basin, China

Balancing ecology and human development has been a long and wide concern. The upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) of China has implemented large important ecological restoration projects since the last century. These restoration practices have changed land use patterns within the UYRB, consequently impacting the local carbon cycle. The most noteworthy project is the Grain for Green Program, which returns cropland to natural vegetation (forest and grassland). Yet the effects of restoration on land use change, carbon sequestration, and associated food production remain unclear. This study utilized remote sensing data and conversion coefficients to analyze the ecological-policy-induced land use changes of the UYRB from 2000 to 2020 and their impacts on terrestrial carbon sequestration. Linear regression, machine learning, and structural equation modeling (SEM) were utilized to evaluate the correlations between environmental and socio-economic factors and the distribution of carbon stocks. The results indicated positive effects of ecological activities on the UYRB, despite decreases in cropland. Over the past 20 years, the UYRB had sequestered carbon by a total amount of 1796 +/- 926 Mt C. The spatial distribution of sequestered carbon demonstrated a strong correlation with slopes, followed by temperatures. The SEM results indicated that agricultural production and carbon sequestration were enhanced synergically under land use changes. This further demonstrated the effectiveness of these land policies in achieving a balance between crop productivity and ecology protection. We emphasized the importance of vegetation restoration in achieving carbon neutrality and the necessity to continue these projects. We suggested a more reasonable land management for the future UYRB based on the characteristics of each geographical subregion. This work serves as an example of effective land management to other locations worldwide perusing the harmony of ecological restoration and human development.