Spatiotemporal changes in future water yield and the driving factors under the carbon neutrality target in Qinghai

The carbon neutrality target has prompted China to restructure its environmental governance system, influencing regional hydrological processes and ultimately affecting future water yield. Considering land use/land cover changes (LUCC) and climate changes, this study examines the impact of China's carbon neutrality target on future water yield. By integrating Future Land Use Simulation and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project datasets, the future water yield is characterized and analyzed under three distinct scenarios: the baseline scenario, carbon neutrality target scenario, and rapid development scenario. Furthermore, the study identifies the dominant driving factors of water yield under different scenarios at both regional and sub-basin scales from 2000 to 2060. Results reveal a clear increase in future water yield with a short-term lag effect of LUCC and climate change. Precipitation emerges as the dominant driving factor of water yield in Qinghai, though its contribution will decrease while vegetation's contribution will increase. The primary driving factors differ across various sub basins, and the result indicates that maintaining the current land-use policy in Qaidam and Hexi corridor-Alxa Basins is conducive to the improvement of future water yield, while aligning land use with carbon neutrality targets benefits water yield in the Lancang River, Qangtan, Yellow River, and Yangtze River Basins. Notably, this underscores that the pursuit of carbon neutrality goals may not uniformly benefit water yield across all sub basins. Instead, Qinghai can rely on higher quality and more extensive vegetation to enhance future water yield. This study offers valuable insights that can contribute to the effective management of water resources at the regional level under the carbon neutrality target.