Effectiveness of Predicting The Spatial Distributions of Target Contaminants of a Coking Plant Based On Their Related Pollutants

Abstract The prediction accuracy of the spatial distribution of soil pollutants at a site is relatively low. Related pollutants can be used as auxiliary variables to improve the prediction accuracy. However, little relevant research has been conducted on site soil pollution. To analyze the prediction accuracy of target pollutants combined with auxiliary pollutants, Cu, toluene, and phenanthrene were selected as the target pollutants for this study. Based on geostatistical analysis and spatial analysis, the following results were obtained. (1) The reduction rate of the root mean square errors (RMSEs) for Cu, toluene, and phenanthrene with multivariable cokriging were 68.4%, 81.6%, and 81.2%, respectively, which are proportional to the correlation coefficient of the relationship between the auxiliary pollutants and the target pollutants. (2) The predicted results for Cu, phenanthrene, and toluene and their corresponding related pollutants are more accurate than the results obtained not using the related pollutants. (3) In the interpolation process, the RMSEs for Cu, toluene, and phenanthrene with multivariable cokriging basically increase as the neighborhood sample data increases, and then they become stable. (4) When 84, 61, and 34 sample points were removed, the RMSEs for Cu, toluene, and phenanthrene, respectively with multivariable cokriging were close to the RMSEs of the target pollutants based on the total samples. The results are of great significance to improving the prediction accuracy of the spatial distribution of soil pollutants at coking plant sites.