Doing business in violence-prone nations: youth bulges and busts

This chapter considers whether when a population experiences a youth bulge, it influences violent conflict and whether violent conflict tends to fall when youth bulges are followed by busts. Since previous analyses have established a strong relationship between youth bulges and violent conflict, this chapter tries to advance knowledge by analyzing what happens when youth bulges come to an end and are followed by youth busts. This question is particularly relevant and important as population growth in many parts of the world has started to slow and in some cases to actually shrink. To treat these questions the chapter starts with a discussion of dangers for firms of doing business in violence prone nations. Then, it explores arguments for why a relationship should exist between youth bulges, busts, and violence. Next comes an empirical analysis that addresses the degree to which these relationships hold in the countries analyzed from 1997-2005.