Land use predicts proportion of West Nile virus vector-competent mosquitoes

Land use and land cover (LULC) change has been identified as an important driver of emerging mosquito-borne zoonotic diseases. However, studies are often limited to individual vector species, despite the potential for interspecific variation in vector competency within mosquito assemblages. This variation can affect transmission hazard, particularly in complex multi-vector disease systems. Here, we used a joint species distribution modeling approach that included mosquito species vector competency for West Nile virus (WNV) as a trait to understand community-level responses to land cover and predict joint species distributions in Manatee County, Florida. We assembled species presence/absence data across 61 sites and 44 species sampled from 2016 to 2020 and percent land cover within 2500 m of trap locations for five common land cover types. These data were used to investigate patterns in species richness and community-weighted proportions of WNV-competent vector species. The results revealed that land cover effects on individual species aligned with known habitat associations: the highest proportions of WNV-competent species were predicted in less diverse urbanized areas, and species richness increased as urbanized areas decreased. Our findings highlight the value of community-level analyses to predict joint vector distributions that can inform where greatest transmission hazard may occur. This information can be used by public health agencies, mosquito control, and land managers to plan more effective and optimized prevention and control efforts.