Long-Term Follow-Up of Interstitial Lung Abnormality: Implication in Follow-Up Strategy and Risk Thresholds

Rationale: The optimal follow-up computed tomography (CT) interval for detecting the progression of interstitial lung abnormality (ILA) is unknown. Objectives: To identify optimal follow-up strategies and extent thresholds on CT relevant to outcomes. Methods: This retrospective study included self-referred screening participants aged 50 years or older, including nonsmokers, who had imaging findings relevant to ILA on chest CT scans. Consecutive CT scans were evaluated to determine the dates of the initial CT showing ILA and the CT showing progression. Deep learning-based ILA quantification was performed. Cox regression was used to identify risk factors for the time to ILA progression and progression to usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP). Measurements and Main Results: Of the 305 participants with a median follow-up duration of 11.3 years (interquartile range, 8.4-14.3 yr), 239 (78.4%) had ILA on at least one CT scan. In participants with serial follow-up CT studies, ILA progression was observed in 80.5% (161 of 200), and progression to UIP was observed in 17.3% (31 of 179), with median times to progression of 3.2 years (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.0-3.4 yr) and 11.8 years (95% CI, 10.8-13.0 yr), respectively. The extent of fibrosis on CT was an independent risk factor for ILA progression (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.02-1.23]) and progression to UIP (hazard ratio, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.07-1.80]). Risk groups based on honeycombing and extent of fibrosis (1% in the whole lung or 5% per lung zone) showed significant differences in 10-year overall survival (P = 0.02). Conclusions: For individuals with initially detected ILA, follow-up CT at 3-year intervals may be appropriate to monitor radiologic progression; however, those at high risk of adverse outcomes on the basis of the quantified extent of fibrotic ILA and the presence of honeycombing may benefit from shortening the interval for follow-up scans.