Validation and Recalibration of the Asbestos Removal Exposure Assessment Tool (AREAT)

Abstract Objectives The Asbestos Removal Exposure Assessment Tool (AREAT) was previously developed to estimate exposure to respirable asbestos fibres during abatement processes. The current study describes the validation and recalibration of the AREAT model with external data. During model validation, the AREAT model was expanded to be able to estimate asbestos exposure from an additional source category: ‘unspecified asbestos remnants’. Methods The validation dataset (n = 281) was derived from exposure measurement studies where for each exposure measurement the AREAT model parameters were coded and estimates were calculated. Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and intra class correlation coefficients (icc) were calculated as an indication of the agreement between the AREAT estimates and measured concentrations. In addition, the bias and the proportion of measurements with higher concentrations than model estimates were calculated. To expand and investigate model performance on exposure from ‘unspecified asbestos remnants’, a separate dataset was created with measurements collected during working with unspecified asbestos remnants, and similar validation comparisons were performed. Lastly, linear regression techniques were used to investigate possible improvements in model parameters. The model was recalibrated on a combined dataset consisting of the validation dataset and the original calibration dataset to increase model robustness. Results The validation comparisons showed good relative agreement (r) between AREAT estimates and measurements (r = 0.73) and a moderate absolute agreement (icc = 0.53). The overall relative bias was 108%, indicating an overall overestimation of exposure, and 4% of the estimated concentrations were higher than the actual measured concentrations. For the data subset concerning unspecified asbestos remnants, a moderate correlation between model estimates and measurement outcomes was found (r = 0.63). However, based on the low number of data in this subset, and moderate r, it was decided that cleaning of unspecified asbestos remnants is out of scope until more data are available. The results of this validation study suggested that two input parameters (product type friable material, efficacy of control measure foam) underestimated exposure. The effects of these parameters were updated to improve model performance. Compared to the original model, the recalibrated model resulted in slightly higher explained variance (62% compared to 56%) and lower uncertainty (15 compared to 17.3). Conclusion The original AREAT model provided reliable asbestos exposure estimates with a sufficient level of conservatism taking into account the 90-percentile estimates. The model was further improved via the addition of a new feature and recalibration to predict asbestos exposure during the clean-up of unspecified asbestos remnants.