An Objective Index for Rainy Season Onset and Withdrawal Dates Over the Mexico Valley Basin

Abstract This work aims to define an index to declare rainy season onset and withdrawal dates for the Mexico Valley Basin, located in central Mexico. The onset/withdrawal is obtained using only precipitation for the study period 1981-2020. The onset is defined as the first day, between May 1st and July 15th, of the first 20 consecutive days having a 20-day average precipitation over the Basin of at least 2.5 mm/day. The withdrawal is defined as the last day, between September 1st and November 15th, of the last 20 consecutive days having a 20-day average precipitation of at least 1.7 mm/day. The mean onset is June 6, with a standard deviation of 14.3 days; the mean withdrawal date is October 15, with a standard deviation of 16.1 days; and the average length of the rainy season is 131 days, with a standard deviation of 22.7 days. These criteria maximize the precipitation change slope during onset/withdrawal. We categorized pre- and post-onset/withdrawal periods to investigate mean circulation characteristic changes. Besides a stark increase (decrease) in rainfall over the Basin during onset (withdrawal), we found that vertically integrated moisture transport over the Caribbean Low-Level Jet core region increases (decreases). The onset/withdrawal dates derived show interannual trends, while a late (early) withdrawal is associated with a positive (negative) ENSO Index, and a strong (weak) Caribbean Lower Level Jet (CLLJ) is associated with a late (early) onset.