The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling improved power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria

Abstract Nigeria has one of the greatest electricity deficits globally and, even in areas connected to the central grid, struggles to provide reliable power across the nation. Frequent system collapses and widespread reliance on diesel generation present a burden for Nigerian households and the economy as a whole. One causal factor in these collapses is capacity inadequacy owing to reduced plant availability as plants are frequently non-operational due to maintenance or other management issues. While this dynamic has been established, it has not yet been explored in energy systems modelling as a potential barrier to meeting Nigeria’s decarbonization goals. Using a combination of OSeMOSYS and FlexTool modelling, this study shows that increasing available capacity decreases loss of load in the energy system. The resulting decrease in backup diesel generation nearly halves total system costs and emissions. Further, Nigeria is unable to meet its 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) without such improvements, indicating that increasing plant availability and reducing diesel generator use must be prioritized in policy to support national implementation of these targets. Policy Insights: 1) Improved power plant availability can dramatically reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector, even under a business-as-usual scenario. However, increasing the pace of that improvement has a smaller impact on emissions. 2) Nigeria can meet its 2030 Unconditional NDC targets without significant changes to its generation mix if plant availability is improved. Near-term investments in energy efficiency will help to further ensure that targets are met. 3) Nigeria can meet its 2030 Conditional NDC targets with energy efficiency investments and improved plant availability. 4) A 30% cap on variable renewable energy (VRE) coupled with full plant availability is expected to reduce system collapses and lost loads. In the flexibility analysis, runs with full availability were able to reduce lost load even in scenarios with increased VRE. 5) It is not possible to meet long-term decarbonization goals without plant improvement.