Spontaneous vesicoureteral reflux resolution curves based on ureteral diameter ratio

Introduction Various factors influence the clinical course of vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) in the pediatric population. Distal ureteral diameter ratio (UDR) is an objective measure reflective of ureterovesical junction anatomy that has been shown to independently predict both spontaneous resolution and breakthrough febrile urinary tract infection (UTI) in children with primary reflux. UDR resolution curves were created, hypothesizing that a UDR value existed at which spontaneous resolution was unlikely to occur. Materials and methods UDR was computed by measuring largest ureteral diameter within the pelvis and dividing by the distance between L1-L3 vertebral bodies. Recursive partitioning with 10-fold cross validation methodology for time to event data, utilizing martingale residuals was used to create high and low risk groups based on UDR, and stratified by age at diagnosis and laterality. Results Three hundred and four patients (226 female, 78 male) were analyzed with a mean age at diagnosis of 1.55 ± 1.98 years. Unilateral reflux (p = 0.02), VUR grades 1–3 (p < 0.001), and lower UDR (p < 0.001) were associated with spontaneous resolution on univariate analysis. UDR values were categorized into risk groups based on recursive partitioning. Low risk patients (those with UDR <0.30) achieved VUR resolution faster and with a continuing rate compared to the high-risk group (≥0.30), which had persistent reflux after 3 years [Summary Figure]. When the 0.30 cutoff was applied randomly to patients in test group, the cutoff significantly discriminated between low and high-risk patients (log rank test p = 0.02). Discussion Primary VUR is often a self-limiting diagnosis, with conservative management favored in low-risk children, UDR may be used to help distinguish those children who may benefit from intervention. Unlike traditional VUR grading where children with any grade of reflux may spontaneously resolve, there appears to be a consistent UDR cutoff whereby patients are very unlikely to spontaneously resolve, regardless of length of follow-up. Therefore, parents of children with a UDR above the 0.3 cutoff, regardless of VUR grade, may be counselled that VUR is very unlikely to resolve over time – thereby reducing the number of VCUGs and length of time these patients are on prophylactic antibiotic prior to surgical intervention. Conclusions Graphical AbstractIncidence of persistent VUR over 5 years stratified by UDR. The low risk group (UDR <0.3) achieves resolution faster and at a continuing rate whereas the high risk group (≥0.3) has persistent reflux. View Large Image Figure Viewer Download Hi-res image